Vulnerability Of Infrastructure Research Articles

Electrical resilience assessment of a building operating at low voltage

Resilience is becoming increasingly important in power systems, microgrids (MG) and buildings. It evaluates their performance against disruptive events. The approaches mainly correspond to high-impact, low-probability events such as natural disasters and intentional attacks affecting the electrical systems infrastructure. However, resilience can encompass medium and low-impact events such as minor civil structural accidents, light faults and supply disturbances. Some resilience assessment advances are in buildings at the low-voltage (LV) level. They include vulnerability to natural disasters, reliability of supply, and service quality. These works usually use approaches independent of each other, leaving a gap between their relationship and interpretation. Therefore, there is a need to consolidate a resilience assessment strategy to guide the analysis of vulnerabilities and strengths in the same direction. This paper proposes a comprehensive approach to evaluate electrical resilience for buildings. It compiles quantitative strategies for studying electrical resilience, focusing on LV systems. It proposes a methodology for integrating the electrical system infrastructure's vulnerability, the supply's continuity and the voltage service's quality. Implementing this approach in a university building equipped with smart metering demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methodology for assessing electrical resilience. The results show a comprehensive resilience analysis and the possibility of extending the methodology to MG and LV distribution networks.

Analysis of Wildfire-Damaged Buildings Using Spatial Information: The Case of the 2023 Gangneung Wildfire

In Korea, several policies and previous studies have focused on forest fire prevention; however, research on the characteristics of building damage caused by wildfires is insufficient. This study investigated a large wildfire that occurred in Gangneung on April 11, 2023, and analyzed the characteristics of the damaged buildings. Furthermore, several discussion points related to building damage due to wildfires are presented through a comparison with previous research. First, because piecemeal measures have limitations in reducing damage to buildings, comprehensive and organic measures are needed, such as supplementing building regulations, managing the surrounding environment, installing damage-reduction facilities, and securing access to firefighting services. Second, although vulnerable infrastructure (fire stations, roads, etc.) must be expanded, additional research is needed focusing on actual cases. Third, because cooperation between various agencies and organizations such as the Korea Forest Service and the National Fire Agency is important in responding to wildfires, systematic improvements are required to make quick and accurate decisions.

The impacts of weather on railway infrastructure in Sweden

ABSTRACT In this paper, we estimate the vulnerability of railway infrastructure, switches, signals, tracks, and catenaries to different weather conditions, temperature, precipitation, snow depth, and wind speed across the entire Swedish railway network between 2006-2020. Using a method to quantify the fault rate we establish thresholds that can be useful for identifying areas of concern for operations. Results reveal that high or low temperatures have a noticeable impact on the fault rates for switches, tracks, and catenaries. High levels of precipitation are associated with higher fault rates across tracks and catenaries. Snow depth has an influence on fault rates for switches and tracks, and high wind speeds are associated with higher fault rates for tracks and catenaries. Finally, signals were found to be the most resilient asset. When comparing two dominant climate zones, notable differences were only found for track asset vulnerability.

Adapting cities to the surge: A comprehensive review of climate-induced urban flooding

Climate change is a serious global issue causing more extreme weather patterns, resulting in more frequent and severe events like urban flooding. This review explores the connection between climate change and urban flooding, offering statistical, scientific, and advanced perspectives. Analyses of precipitation patterns show clear changes, establishing a strong link between climate change and the heightened intensity of global rainfall events. Hydrological modeling and case studies provide compelling scientific evidence attributing urban flooding to climate-induced changes. Urban infrastructure, including transportation networks and critical facilities, is increasingly vulnerable, worsening the impact on people's lives and businesses. Examining adaptation strategies, the review highlights the need for resilient urban planning and the integration of green infrastructure. Additionally, it delves into the role of advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence, remote sensing, and predictive modeling, in improving flood prediction, monitoring, and management. The socio-economic implications of urban flooding are discussed, emphasizing unequal vulnerability and the importance of inclusive policies. In conclusion, the review stresses the urgency of addressing climate-induced urban flooding through a holistic analysis of statistical trends, scientific evidence, infrastructure vulnerabilities, and adaptive measures. The integration of advanced technologies and a comprehensive understanding of socio-economic implications are essential for developing effective, inclusive strategies. This review serves as a valuable resource, offering insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners striving for climate-resilient urban futures amid escalating climate change impacts.

Climate change projection using statistical downscaling model over southern coastal Iran

Iran is highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly evident in shifting precipitation and temperature patterns, especially in its southern coastal region. With these changing climate conditions, there is an urgent need for practical and adaptive management of water resources and energy supply to address the challenges posed by future climate change. Over the next two to three decades, the effects of climate change, such as precipitation and temperature, are expected to worsen, posing greater risks to water resources, agriculture, and infrastructure stability. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the alterations in mean daily temperature (Tmean) and total daily rainfall (rrr24) utilizing climate change scenarios from both phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) in the southern coastal regions of Iran (Hormozgan province), specifically north of the Strait of Hormuz. The predictions were generated using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) predictors, incorporating climate change scenarios from CMIP5 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 and CMIP6 with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1, 2, and 5. The analysis was conducted for three distinct time periods: the early 21st century (2021–2045), middle 21st century (2046–2071), and late 21st century (2071–2095). The results indicated that the CMIP5 model outperformed the CMIP6 model in simulating and predicting Tmean and rrr24. In addition, a significant increase in Tmean was observed across all the scenarios and time periods, with the most pronounced trend occurring in the middle and late 21st century future periods. This increase was already evident during the base period of 2021–2045 across all scenarios. Moreover, the fluctuations in precipitation throughout the region and across all scenarios were significant in the three examined future periods. The results indicated that among CMIP5 scenarios, RCP8.5 had highest changes of Tmean (+1.22 °C) in Bandar Lengeh station in 2071–2095 period. The lowest change magnitude of Tmean among CMIP5 scenarios was found in RCP4.5 (−1.94 °C) in Ch station in 2046–2070 period. The results indicated that among CMIP5 scenarios, RCP8.5 had highest changes of rrr24 (+150.2 mm) in Chabahar station in 2071–2095 period. The lowest change magnitude of rrr24 among CMIP5 scenarios was found in RCP8.5 (−25.8 mm) in Bandar Abbas station in 2046–2070 period. In conclusion, the study reveals that the coastal area of Hormozgan province will experience rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns in the future. These changes may lead to challenges such as increased water and energy consumption, heightened risks of droughts or floods, and potential damage to agriculture and infrastructure. These findings offer valuable insights for implementing local mitigation policies and strategies and adapting to emerging climate changes in Hormozgan's coastal areas. For example, utilizing water harvesting technologies, implementing watershed management practices, and adopting new irrigation systems can address challenges like water consumption, agricultural impacts, and infrastructure vulnerability. Future research should accurately assess the effect of these changes in precipitation and temperature on water resources, forest ecosystems, agriculture, and other infrastructures in the study area to implement effective management measures.

Multimodal seismic assessment of infrastructures retrofitted with exoskeletons: insights from the Foggia Airport case study

AbstractAddressing the seismic vulnerability of infrastructures is critical, especially for those built before the introduction of the current seismic regulations. One of the primary challenges lies in retrofitting these buildings without interrupting their functionality. In this context, the use of exoskeletons for seismic retrofitting represents an effective solution. This approach increases the seismic resistance and ensures the continuous operation of the building during retrofitting. This advantage is especially crucial for critical infrastructures, such as airports. Nevertheless, traditional seismic assessment methods based on pushover analyses might not accurately predict the seismic capacity of complex infrastructures dominated by local vibration modes. To bridge this gap, the study proposes refining the multimodal pushover analysis tailored for seismic vulnerability assessments of large infrastructures with exoskeletons characterized by low modal participation ratios. The Foggia Airport case study exemplifies these points and highlights the practical applications of the discussed advancements. The authors compared two force distributions for push-over analysis, addressing the fine-tuning of exoskeletons to maximize their seismic resistance.

National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection through Cybersecurity: A National Government Perspective

The South African national government is forging ahead with digitalisation plans to enhance socioeconomic growth in the country. However, digitalisation is accompanied by detrimental cybersecurity risks that may potentially exacerbate the vulnerability of the National Critical Information Infrastructure (NCII) of South Africa to cyber-attacks. Therefore, the envisaged digitalisation benefits in South Africa may be offset by the increased cybersecurity risk on the NCII of the country. Through a theoretical literature review, this study aims to investigate digitalisation and identify the cybersecurity risks it poses to the National Critical Information Infrastructure of South Africa, from a national government policy perspective. A gap has been identified in Information and Communications Technology for Development (ICT4D) research studies that researchers tend to focus on the implementation of ICTs while neglecting the policy aspect that is meant to direct and control the implementation of ICTs. Therefore, this study bridges this gap by approaching digitalisation and cybersecurity from a national government policy perspective. The output of this study is a National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection (through Cybersecurity) Conceptual Framework (NCIIP-CF) that is applicable to all spheres of government (local, provincial or national) as policy makers. The NCIIP-CF demonstrates an approach that embeds cybersecurity in the digitalisation process for the national government of South Africa, thus enabling an NCII that is resilient to cybersecurity risks.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of buried water supply and sanitation pipelines using the analytic hierarchy process: a methodology and application

The evaluation of seismic vulnerability in buried pipelines within water supply and sanitation networks stands as a critical endeavor in safeguarding infrastructure against the impacts of earthquakes. In response, this study introduces a systematic methodology rooted in the Vulnerability Index (VI), leveraging the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to allocate weights to factors influencing pipeline seismic behavior. Through the derivation of an expression for calculating the VI based on these weighted factors, our objective is to furnish a comprehensive pipeline classification system, thereby providing a strategic overview of the networks' seismic resilience. This method's practical utility will be exemplified through the examination of concrete cases involving drinking water pipelines (DWP). Furthermore, the scope will extend to encompass sanitation pipelines, thereby validating the methodology's effectiveness across both domains. By systematically assessing the seismic vulnerability of these crucial infrastructures, we aim to fortify their resilience against seismic events, ensuring the continued provision of essential services even in the face of natural disasters. This study's significance lies not only in its contribution to the field of infrastructure resilience but also in its practical implications for urban planning and disaster management. By elucidating the factors influencing pipeline vulnerability and providing a robust framework for assessment, decision-makers can better prioritize resource allocation and mitigation efforts, ultimately enhancing community safety and well-being. Furthermore, the methodology's adaptability and scalability render it applicable to diverse contexts, facilitating its integration into broader risk management strategies. As such, this study serves as a valuable tool for policymakers, engineers, and stakeholders seeking to enhance the resilience of water supply and sanitation networks in earthquake-prone regions. Through informed decision-making and proactive measures, we can build more resilient communities capable of withstanding the challenges posed by seismic hazards.

Classification of Cyber Risks for Sea Vessel’s Voyage Cycle

Modern digital transformation in the shipping industry Shipping 4.0 is accompanied by increased automation and autonomy of the ship. This means strengthening the digitization of the ship's navigation systems (cyber systems). Therefore, the safe operation and navigation of modern ships depends on the adequate operation of cyber-physical systems, which are created on the basis of information and operational technologies. Such interconnections of ship information systems inevitably increase the vulnerability of the ship's digital navigation infrastructure to cyber-attacks. The article examines methods of controlling cyber risks of various origins, which determine the priority of flows, their internal interconnection and relations with the sources of messages that form them. The formalization of the qualitative and quantitative properties of information flows of the voyage cycle using matrix and graph-analytical modeling methods has been carried out. A decomposition of information was built and a cluster of information security of ship maneuvering control was defined, with its access closed for cyber-attacks. In the event of cyber-attacks, it is very important for the navigator to determine the moment of it’s appearance and the state of navigational devices of the bridge. Usually, the working state of the device is determined by the presence of electric current in it. However, only the presence of current in the device during cyber-attacks is not enough to assess its working condition. Inspection and verification of 11 navigation devices on the bridge takes a lot of time, which the navigator does not have in the event of a cyber-attack. Therefore, we propose to introduce an additional function of controlling the working status of each navigational device, and to transmit the results of all devices to a separate navigation cluster Mk of the navigation bridge via shielded cable lines of the vessel without other methods. This will make it possible to gather information about all the devices in one place on the bridge, protect it from cyberattacks, and quickly determine the operating status of all the navigation devices on the bridge. Descriptive modeling of the meaningful categories of the information space of maritime routes during cyberattacks was performed. The proposed classification of cyber risks has a logical structure based on the grouping of message flows, using the cluster connection coefficient between them. This makes it possible to assess the criticality of the impact of cyber-attacks on the ship and to choose ways to reduce their impact on the maneuvering of the ship in the voyage cycle.

The John Mitchell Lecture 2023: road asset, socio-economic and fatality risk from debris flow

Fast-moving, rainfall-induced debris-flow events are relatively common in the mountainous areas of the UK. The mechanisms of such debris flows are considered as they bridge between slow mass movements and flood phenomena. A series of case studies of debris-flow impacts from Scotland and overseas is described. The assessment of landslide hazards and risks are essential precursors to landslide risk reduction. This is particularly the case when an authority is responsible for an infrastructure or building portfolio that may be affected by multiple hazards. A framework for risk acceptance is used to set the context, and the use of a semi-quantitative assessment to determine the sites of highest risk is described. These highest risk sites are subject to quantitative risk assessments for road-user fatalities as a result of debris flows. A novel approach is taken to assess the socio-economic risks and the use of fragility curves to articulate the vulnerability of road infrastructure, including the newly developed approach involving systems of assets, is also described. The effects of climate change are considered alongside likely social and/or demographic change. A strategic approach to landslide risk reduction is used to illustrate how a clear focus on the overall goal of risk reduction can be beneficial in developing an effective strategy before homing in on the desired outcomes and the generic approach to achieving those outcomes.

Transformation of Crimes (Cybercrimes) in Digital Age

The cybercrime thrives, understanding its evolution is critical for security and policy interventions. This research profiles cyber threat trends since the 1950s alongside legal developments. Background examines early hacking cultures, antivirus innovations, and seminal cases that set precedents. The objectives encompass analyzing major technical and legal inflection points over recent decades regarding cybercrimes. The study's aim is validating escalating cyber risks that demand urgent attention. Doctrinal methodology leverages scholarly journals, case law, and industry data. Key findings reveal sophisticated social engineering tactics, gaps in legal deterrence frameworks, and infrastructure vulnerabilities that underscore needs for global cooperation. Recommendations center on proactive reforms to cybersecurity statutes, public awareness, and cross-border collaboration to mitigate emerging threats. Tracing cybercrime's timeline provides vital context to catalyze preemptive actions against potential attacks in an increasingly interconnected online ecosystem.

An Assessment of Flood Risk in the Gambia: A Data-Driven Approach to Flood Risk Management and Prevention

Coastal African countries, including Gambia, are increasingly vulnerable to a range of natural disasters, notably flooding, which poses significant challenges to sustainable development and safety. This study set out to comprehensively assess the flood risk in Gambia using a data-driven approach, aiming to enhance flood risk management and prevention strategies. Utilizing geospatial data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, the research involved mapping and categorizing flood risk zones across various regions. The analysis focused on the identification and categorization of flood risk zones, assessment of the vulnerability of key infrastructures, health facilities, road networks, and settlements to flooding. The findings reveal that a total of 2,721 square kilometers of land is at flood risk categorized as either high or very high. This constitutes 26.89 percent of the country’s of terrestrial area. A total of 25 critical health infrastructure were in areas of this high flood risk categorization – ranging from general hospitals to clinics. Up to 24.5% of the nation's road network was found to be in this flood risk zone. Of the country’s five administrative regions, the West Coast Region which is home to most of its urban centers was most at risk of flooding. Here, of the 353 settlements in this region, 172 of them fell under the high to very high-risk flood zone categorization, constituting 48.7% of the settlements at a significant level of flood vulnerability. This study enhances the understanding of flood hazards in Gambia, providing essential perspectives for decision makers, city planners, and emergency response teams. This research highlights the need for using data-driven methods in identifying and managing environmental risks. It also advocates for the adoption of long-term strategic planning, infrastructure enhancements, and community-based activities to reduce the effects of floods.

Analysis of critical factors influencing sustainable infrastructure vulnerabilities using an ISM-MICMAC approach

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to develop a new hybrid method that combines interpretative structural modeling (ISM) and matrix cross-impact multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) to investigate the influencing factors of sustainable infrastructure vulnerability (SIV).Design/methodology/approach(1) Literature review and case study were used to identify the possible influencing factors; (2) a semi-structured interview was conducted to identify representative factors and the interrelationships among influencing factors; (3) ISM was adopted to identify the hierarchical structure of factors; (4) MICMAC was used to analyze the driving power (DRP) and dependence power (DEP) of each factor and (5) Semi-structured interview was used to propose strategies for overcoming SIV.FindingsResults indicate that (1) 18 representative factors related to SIV were identified; (2) the relationship between these factors was divided into a five-layer hierarchical structure. The 18 representative factors were divided into driving factors, dependent factors, linkage factors and independent factors and (3) 12 strategies were presented to address the negative effects of these factors.Originality/valueThe findings illustrate the factors influencing SIV and their hierarchical structures, which can benefit the stakeholders and practitioners of an infrastructure project by encouraging them to take effective countermeasures to deal with related SIVs.

CYBERSECURITY CHALLENGES IN SMART CITIES: A CASE REVIEW OF AFRICAN METROPOLISES

The rapid urbanization and digital transformation of cities across Africa have given rise to the concept of Smart Cities, where advanced technologies are integrated to enhance efficiency, sustainability, and the overall quality of urban life. However, this paradigm shift towards interconnected and technology-driven urban environments brings forth a host of cybersecurity challenges that demand careful consideration. This paper explores the cybersecurity challenges in Smart Cities, focusing on a case review of African metropolises. African cities, emblematic of the global urbanization trend, are embracing Smart City initiatives to address urban challenges and foster economic development. While these initiatives promise improved services and enhanced connectivity, they concurrently expose cities to a myriad of cybersecurity threats. The interconnectedness of devices and systems in Smart Cities creates a vast attack surface, making them susceptible to cyber-attacks ranging from data breaches to infrastructure disruptions. This case review delves into specific instances of cybersecurity challenges faced by African metropolises in their quest for technological advancement. It analyzes the vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, such as energy grids, transportation systems, and healthcare networks, highlighting the potential risks associated with inadequate cybersecurity measures. Moreover, the paper sheds light on the socio-economic implications of cyber threats in Smart Cities, emphasizing the importance of resilient cybersecurity frameworks in safeguarding citizen data and urban functionality. In conclusion, the paper underscores the urgent need for comprehensive cybersecurity strategies tailored to the unique challenges faced by Smart Cities in Africa. The findings aim to contribute to a better understanding of the intricate relationship between urbanization, technology, and cybersecurity, offering insights that can inform policy decisions, technological implementations, and collaborative efforts to build secure and resilient Smart Cities in the African context.
 Keywords: Cybersecurity, Smart Cities, Africa, Metropolis, Review.

Climate Resilient Cities Assessing Differential Vulnerability to Climate Hazards in Urban India

This report introduces the Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment (CHVA) framework, which is developed as an accessible tool to focus on the hazards and social factors that create differential vulnerability to climate change in cities. To analyse differential vulnerability, CHVA is divided into three parts: Hazard Identification and Assessment, Exposure Analysis, and Vulnerability Assessment. Using official city-level data that can in some cases be supplemented with alternative local data sources, the CHVA assesses both hazards and the vulnerability of people and critical infrastructure to give a robust and in-depth understanding of urban vulnerability.

A climate-impact-related transport infrastructure risk assessment for the City of Cape Town

Climate-related severe weather events pose a threat to transport infrastructure. Damage to transport infrastructure, in turn, threatens access to socio-economic opportunities (such as employment, healthcare and education). The aim of this paper is to quantify the volume of transport infrastructure at risk of weather-related hazards in the City of Cape Town, and to estimate the direct economic value thereof. Geographical Information Systems are used to overlay areas that are highly exposed to climate-related threats on the city's transport network and infrastructure, enabling the identification and quantification of the volume of infrastructure at risk. Cost estimates for the rehabilitation or reconstruction of this infrastructure obtained from various experts in the South African transport arena are applied to calculate the economic value of the infrastructure at risk. In total, the transport infrastructure at high risk in the case city is valued at R20 billion. Fires and coastal flooding pose the greatest threat. The analysis presented can inform planners and decision-makers on how to improve the resilience and where to reduce the vulnerability of transport infrastructure in the city.

The New Face of Terrorism: Global and National Challenges

In the contemporary landscape, terrorism has metamorphosed into a multifaceted and dynamic threat, manifesting in diverse forms on both global and national fronts. This paper investigates the intricacies of this evolving phenomenon, shedding light on its new face amidst shifting geopolitical paradigms and technological advancements. Through an exploration of the complex interplay between state and non-state actors, as well as the proliferation of diverse ideologies, it elucidates the challenges posed by modern terrorism at both global and national levels. The analysis encompasses the emergence of asymmetrical warfare tactics, the proliferation of transnational networks, and the diversification of ideological motivations driving terrorist activities. Moreover, it delves into the specific challenges faced by nations, including the rise of domestic radicalization, lone wolf attacks, and vulnerabilities in security infrastructure. By examining these issues, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the contemporary terrorism landscape, highlighting the imperative for international cooperation, enhanced cybersecurity measures, and community engagement strategies in countering this pervasive threat. Through case studies and projections for future trends, it offers valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners tasked with addressing the complexities of terrorism in the 21st century.

Cyberterrorism and National Security: Issues and Challenges in Contemporary Indonesia

Cyberterrorism has emerged as a significant threat to national security in contemporary Indonesia, presenting multifaceted challenges to governmental authorities, security agencies, and society at large. This paper examines the landscape of cyberterrorism in Indonesia, exploring its various dimensions, including its definition, manifestations, and impacts on national security. Through a comprehensive review of existing literature, governmental reports, and media sources, this paper identifies key issues and challenges posed by cyberterrorism in the Indonesian context. It analyzes the vulnerabilities of Indonesia's cyberspace infrastructure, the motivations driving cyberterrorist activities, and the potential consequences for political stability, economic development, and social cohesion. Furthermore, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of existing cybersecurity measures and counterterrorism strategies employed by Indonesian authorities, highlighting areas for improvement and future research. By shedding light on the complex interplay between cyberterrorism and national security, this paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of this critical issue and inform policy responses aimed at safeguarding Indonesia's digital domain.

Optimizing Geotechnical Parameters for Sustainable Road Embankments in Flood Disaster-Prone Areas of Bangladesh

The vulnerability of transportation infrastructure to flood disasters in Bangladesh necessitates strategic interventions to optimize geotechnical parameters for sustainable road embankments. This study focuses on a flood disaster-prone region of Bangladesh, aiming to enhance the resilience and sustainability of road infrastructure in the face of recurring floods. The research is driven by the imperative to develop effective engineering strategies that mitigate the impact of floods on road embankments, ensuring safe and reliable transportation networks. The study area is characterized by a complex interplay of geographic and geological factors that contribute to its susceptibility to flooding. Understanding the local geology is crucial for tailoring geotechnical parameters to the specific conditions of the region. Detailed analyses of soil types, their composition, and formation processes provide the foundation for the subsequent optimization efforts. The methodology employed involves systematic sampling along a Road, incorporating both in-situ and laboratory testing. Geotechnical analyses include the evaluation of critical parameters such as California Bearing Ratio (CBR), shear strength, and soil composition. These analyses are instrumental in identifying key geotechnical characteristics that significantly influence the performance of road embankments during flood events. The optimization process encompasses the application of advanced techniques to enhance the resilience of road embankments. The results and subsequent discussions delve into the effectiveness of the optimization strategies in comparison to existing standards and guidelines for road construction. This involves a comprehensive assessment of soil properties, composition, and the outcomes of the optimization process. Finally, the study sheds light on the critical role of geotechnical parameters in developing sustainable road embankments in flood-prone areas. The findings not only contribute to the understanding of the study area but also offer valuable insights for broader applications in flood disaster mitigation in Bangladesh. The research emphasizes the need for a proactive approach to optimize geotechnical parameters, paving the way for resilient and sustainable road infrastructure that can withstand the challenges posed by recurrent floods.

Empirical causal analysis of flood risk factors on U.S. flood insurance payouts:Implications for solvency and risk reduction

This paper presents a regression model that quantifies the causal relationship between flood risk factors and the flood insurance payout in the U.S. The flood risk factors that have been considered in this research are flood exposure, infrastructure vulnerability, social vulnerability, and the number of mobile homes. Historical data for the annual flood insurance payout, flood risk factors, and other control variables were collected for six years between 2016 and 2021 and used in a Mixed Effects Regression model to derive the empirical relationships. The regression model expressed the natural logarithm of the annual flood insurance payout in a county based on the flood risk factors and control variables. The paper presents the regression coefficients that quantify the causal influence. It has been found that all four flood risk factors have statistically significant positive influence on the flood insurance payout in a county. However, the extent of the influence is different for different flood risk factors. Among them, flood exposure has the highest influence on the flood insurance payout, which is followed by the number of mobile homes, infrastructure vulnerability, and social vulnerability. Since the federal flood insurance program in the U.S. has a large debt to the U.S. treasury, the government should plan for effective risk reduction that can reduce the flood insurance payout in future to keep the program solvent. The outcomes of this research are expected to facilitate that decision-making process by providing the empirical relationship between flood risk factors and flood insurance payout.